Rise of the Beasts Concludes Box Office Run as Lowest-Earning Live Action Transformers Film to Date

Grun Gast

If I'm not mistaken, there's quite a few things that make a "aim for China" strategy not very viable anymore. You of course have that thing where the CCP is encouraging theatres to focus more on local productions, but there's also the simple fact that a lot of stuff Hollywood tries to push just doesn't appeal to the Chinese audience. I've mentioned previously how Hollywood films trying to use a "diverse" cast as a selling point is generally ineffective in the South-East Asian region, but it's even worse when you get to much more homogenous places like China or Japan. And forget doing something like "there's a strong female character!", since they have plenty of those already. You also have all sorts of rules, like how if I remember right both time-travel and supernatural stuff is a no-no.

And naturally, you have the fact that any production that is hoping to make it big in China will basically have to beg the CCP for permission and make all sorts of concessions (like was mentioned earlier, a bigger cut going to China, for example).

ROTB itself had a bad reception in China, we should know what the reasons were; so they stick more to their tastes, it should at least get a little closer to the number of Bumblebee, I think that at the moment of Hollywood movies in China it will be very difficult almost impossible to return to the AOE-TLK numbers

JD The Last Autobot

I don't think you will have Megatron G1 in the ROTB sequel, since it will already be in TFOne, I think the BW Megatron has a better chance of coming out

Never!!!!!! Nah man I'm just playing anything is possible. Although I would prefer a G1 Megatron.

Rob

I suppose an actor would be the cheapest option, so sure why not? But G1 MEGATRON BABY no TRex! But I'll take Grimlock.

I don't think you will have Megatron G1 in the ROTB sequel, since it will already be in TFOne, I think the BW Megatron has a better chance of coming out

Rob

Alright, but I feel like there has to be some risky math that has to be done to make it work. I mean 75%, even with the CGI, how much does that save them, if at all?

You see where I'm going with this right? Like is China really worth it?

I see where you are going with it. The answer is no, I don't think china is worth it unless China invests a lot into the film (like the Meg).

Rob

Alright, but I feel like there has to be some risky math that has to be done to make it work. I mean 75%, even with the CGI, how much does that save them, if at all?

You see where I'm going with this right? Like is China really worth it?

I think Paramount should try it, I think domestic recovery will continue to happen if the sequel is superior to ROTB, recovery in Europe is difficult, to recover China you only need a well-known actor from there, the T Rex Predacon or set it there?

Dmhead

No idea, but I guess China takes more than half?

China takes 75% due to current trade laws, so Paramount only got 22 million back from ROTB's 91 Million performance in China (hence, the 2.5 profitability rule we throw around)
HOWEVER, a film like the Meg also has Chinese financing, so while they get a bigger piece of the pie, the american studio took less of a risk since they paid less money for it.

Grun Gast

I have to admit that I also don't see much profit coming in from non-toy merchandise. I'll see Transformers-branded clothes, sure, but they generally aren't explicitly ROTB-branded.

Wait till Halloween

Dmhead

No idea, but I guess China takes more than half?

That's a bit of an oversimplification. The back-of-the-envelope math is that theaters get approximately half and distributors get the other half. In most foreign territories and especially China, the domestic distributors (Paramount, in this case) are partnering with a foreign distributor or distributors. So that roughly fifty percent gets split with a Chinese company.

These are not specific figures, as the numbers can vary widely based on picture, market, and specific deals. I've seen numbers for the actual US distributor cut as low as 20% and as high as 60%. But I recommend thinking about these issues in broad categories and not getting too distracted by minutiae, because there will be variance that isn't publicly accessible. And I keep making the case, as fans we shouldn't be worrying about trying to drill in that far, because if it's not an obvious success it probably isn't any kind of success.

I know most of us do not have a subscription to the Wall Street Journal, and I probably only read individual paragraphs from this that people screenshot in sharing posts, but this covers the topic directly:
Not Even Tom Cruise Can Charm China’s Moviegoers Into Seeing Hollywood Films
Schwartzel wrote the book on Hollywood and China, as the saying goes, "Red Carpet."

Dmhead

I think the sequel should involve something with China like a famous actor and shot in location there. Look at the Meg 2. 118 million alone in China. Of course the sequel needs to have a lower budget than 200 million.

Hollywood spent the better part of the last decade trying to do this, and it doesn't work anymore for many, many reasons. Many of those were discussed earlier in the thread, and the trades have covered it at some length this year.

Rob

I have a question how much of money earned in China is represents profits? Compared to lets day the America's?

Complicated question, but the very short version is that Paramount does make less money from every box office dollar in China compared to the same in the US.